The Modern World, Part Two: Global History since 1910 -- Week 1 Video Lecture Summary

Video 1: The Shock of 1914

Reasons for WWI

International rivalry: WWI began in August 1914 and people didn't see it coming. The most common reason given for WWI is international rivalries in Europe: [The Central Powers: Germany and Austro-Hungary] against [the Entente: France and Russia]. GB didn't have a formal treaty with France so it wasn't part of the Entente but it did have friendly relations with France. After WWI began though GB joined the Entente.

Militarism and arms race: lots of people were bulking up their armies

Imperial rivalries

Economic rivalries: Many empires were financially insecure.

Businesspeople were loaning money internationally with low interest rates, which meant that they deemed its return highly probable. There was no indication in the bond markets in the summer of 1914 that war was coming.

Why were so people surprised when it happened with so many reasons for war? Why did so many expect peace?

- Europe had been mostly peaceful for 40 years. Peace seemed like the norm.

- Peace was profitable. This was a period of general economic growth. 

- Chronic tensions in Europe existed but they were mostly managed well. There were entities that were expected to intervene when things got heated up ("the governor").

What changed in the way they managed these tensions? Who failed to intervene?

Who was not surprised that war broke out? Some people did see it coming. They had inside information.

Video 2: Schizophrenic Germany

Domestic factors contributing to WWI.

Germany seems to have two different personalities at least on the eve of WWI. Austro-Hungary is important and also the Russian empire. But we are focusing on Germany because "they controlled the strategic initiative". Strategic initiative = the ability to set the time, place, and manner of engagement. It was their decision, more than any other single country, to risk general war.

The German Empire is a deeply split government. There are lots of kingdoms: Bavaria, Prussia, Wurttenberg, Baden, Saxony. Each state has its own government, social services, with a smaller army that is unified but still distinct. There's a Kaiser (emperor) with limited powers: he runs the army, the navy, and he's also the King of Prussia. He answers to a parliament as Kaiser. The Kaiser represents old nobility. He is part of a minority of Germany, a tiny faction within the National Traditionalists.

The other parties are very varied: National Conservatives, Liberals, Democratic Socialists, and also Revolutionary Socialists who don't participate in politics.

Wilhelm II is the Kaiser. He has a withered arm and a need to prove himself. Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg was the man actually running the imperial government. He's appointed by the Kaiser to his job.

In foreign affairs, Germany is threatened by its surrounding countries. Russia is growing. France wants revenge for the Franco-Prussian war.

Sir Edward Grey is the British Foreign Minister and he wants to diffuse crises and manage European powers and prevent conflict on the continent.

The Kaiser and his nobility friends are starting to get frustrated for domestic and international reasons. In the 1912 election, Democratic socialists get the most votes (see above table). The liberal parties are also popular. The Catholic Center Party is also popular. National conservatives are also prominent. All in all, the parties represent the interests of the working class and this doesn't bode well for the Kaiser.

Video 3: The Balkan Whirlpool

International factors contributing to WWI.

Germany is getting sucked into the Balkan whirlpool.

The Balkans are anti-imperialist. They're against the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman Empires that oppressed them. Between 1814-1914 this region was oppressed by many empires. The Ottoman Empire gets pushed back. The empires get worried: the AH empire, the Russians who are sympathetic to their Slavic counterparts the Serbs. The Turks also aren't happy: they hope to get some of their territories back.

This causes proxy wars in the Balkans during this 100-year timespan, with different nations backing up the interest of other nations.

There's lots of resentment between different nations in Europe because of all these complicated relationships. 

Accelerants 1912-13

December 1912 -- The "War Council" is held by the Germans. The Kaiser analyses the state of affairs in Europe. He predicts that a final war is coming, which will see the Germans on one side against the Slavs, the Gauls, and the Anglo-Saxons. He talks about a war between races rather than nations. He sees the German issue as a "struggle for existence" in a Europe where the other powers "fear that we [Germany] will become great."

The Germans decide to have a preventative war before the Russians get too strong.

The Germans make an alliance with Austria-Hungary who is struggling against the Balkan anti-imperialists and Italy.

The Germans bulk up their army.

The Germans prepare to fight a war in France and Belgium if the need arises to have a war against the Balkans.

There's an arms race.

Relations with Russia get tenser.

By 1914 there are lots of accelerants.

Video 4: The Shock of 1914

There's an assassination in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia. Serbia, a new kingdom that neighbors Bosnia, believes that they should control Bosnia, in addition to other Balkan territories. Russia supports Serbia. 

Simultaneously, there's a German-Austria-Hungarian alliance.

The Archduke of Austria-Hungary plans a state visit to Bosnia. The Bosnians and the Serbs plot together to kill him. They kill him and his wife. The terrorists hope that this might start a war, weakening the Austria-Hungary empire so that they can claim portions of it. A war indeed starts.

Vienna delivered a harsh ultimatum to Serbia. They did this knowing that Germany had their backs and also that the Russians would back the Serbs. The Russians indeed back the Serbs. It is unclear why, since the Serbs were obviously assholes. Then Germany supported Austria, and France supported Russia, and everyone's against everyone else.

Germany's response is not a defensive move to protect A-H but instead to attack France. This escalates into a war. Why, though? Because of the different plans each power had. But also "broader reckoning" for Germany. Germany thinks that Russians are too barbaric to rule and that Britain only cares about $$. Moltke, the head of the German army, sees this war as an opportunity to enact Germany's vision to lead mankind.

Who was not shocked that there was a war? The Serbian intelligence chief and the Bosnian-Serb terrorists. The decisions of fewer than a dozen people in Austria, France, and Russia plunged the world into war! These people assessed the situation and made decisions. They look at war as a way to possibly clarify the muddled, tense situation.

The lack of British involvement also contributed to the starting of a war. In the previous conflicts in the Balkans they played a mediating role but in 1914 they couldn't because they were preoccupied with Ireland.

Henry Adams' prediction of 1905 is beginning to come true. The technologies people created are more advanced than the thinking of the people that created them.

Fighting this war feels right to people. Photos of happy German soldiers.

Video 5: All the Plans Fail

From Wikipedia:

The Central Powers, also known as the Central Empires, was one of the two main coalitions that fought World War I (1914–18). It consisted of Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria; hence it is also known as the Quadruple Alliance.

The Allies of World War I or Entente Powers were a coalition of countries led by France, Britain, Russia, Italy, Japan, and the United States.

There are lots of really elaborate plans to win the war and they're failing.

Plans involve artillery, railways, etc but it's all super bloody.

Wars until then had lasted a year, 18 months. Nobody expected a longer war.

Belgium was neutral. France and Germany both had the option to invade Belgium and gain more ground. Germany went for it, knowing that Britain would back France. France attacks Germany. Russia attacks Germany from the East and Germany defeats Russia. France defeats Germany on their front, the western front. The Serbians attack Austro-Hungary but Germany helps AH. Serbia is occupied by the Central Powers.

Japan joins the British because they're allied. They occupy German-held islands in the Pacific.

The Ottoman Empire joins the Central Powers, declaring a holy war (Jihad) against the Allied Powers. The war extends to the colonies especially Africa, where there is a jungle war between Britain and Germany.

By 1915, Germany and its allies control a lot of Europe, Southwest Europe, and Southwest Asia. The Allies push in on them from both sides.

Brits are fighting Turks in Asia and are making alliances with Arabs.

Chemistry is being used in warfare. Submarines are being used in naval warfare.

Everyone's developing plans to win the war in 1915. Australia and New Zealand joins the allies to attack Constantinople via Gallipolli and take the Ottoman Empire out of the running. These plans fail too. A strong Turkish army and hundreds of thousands of casualties.

The aims of the war evolve. It was initially about the rivalry in the Balkans. The Allies now want to dismantle the Austro-Hungarian empire and the Ottoman empire.

New war plans for 1916! The Allies' and the Germans' plans both center on the Western front. The Germans plan a bloodbath for the French in Verdun. They also plan to extend submarine warfare. The British will launch a battle in the Somme. The battle of Verdun is waged for a year and takes over 1 million lives. The Germans sink ships that bring raw materials from America to England but America tells them if they sink American ships they'll join the Allies. So the Germans hold back and their plan fails.

The Russians with the Allies were going to knock the Austrians out of the war. Another inconclusive outcome and bloody battle.

The Somme fails too with tens of thousands dying.

Everything is being strained: economies, finances. Each side thinks: how can they win the war? Between August 1916 - January 1917 lots of possibilities are explored.

Video 6: On to Victory?

In late 1916 decisions were made debating whether to continue the war. How did the key players see the situation in late 1916?

United States: The US was doing very well economically by staying out of the war. They became suppliers of food and materials. Woodrow Wilson the president was a skilful politician and the foreign policy was all his policy. He was scornful about the rivalries in Europe and didn't sympathize with either side. However, he knew that is the war continued America would be pulled into it because they were currently supplying goods and money to only one side. So Wilson wanted to bring the war to an end to avoid being pulled into it. He had leverage over the war:

- He was genuinely neutral so could talk to both sides

- Germany didn't want US to enter the war (leverage over Germans)

- The US was loaning the British money (leverage over Brits)

Woodrow didn't want to build up the US army. Would the US be threatening enough to the Germans?

In early 1916 Wilson had tried to make a move for peace but it failed cause there was too much drama in Europe. Towards November 1916 Wilson was running for reelection. 

Meanwhile in Germany, the leadership is feeling great strain. Their position is okay tactically: their armies are on French and Belgian territory but strategically they can't see how they might win the war. The only option they see is to bring in submarines and cut off supplies to Britain, but this would involve the US in the war. Bethmann the civilian chancellor for the Kaiser sees they have to settle the situation soon or they'll lose control of the situation: war will rage and Germany will turn into a military dictatorship devoted to winning a war. The Germans then reach out to the US for Woodrow to help mediate peace. The Germans are worried the US election will delay this mediation. 

Herbert Asquith, the liberal PM of Britain in 1916 is overwhelmed by the war. His son is killed in France. Britain suffers greatly from the devastation of the war. In August 1916 he asks the cabinet to opine regarding reasons to continue the war. Lloyd George is a representative of the working class. He sees himself as the man who could lead Britain to victory. His perspective is that Britain should follow through with the warfare and he goes public with this opinion in September 1916. Asquith gets a memo from senior statesman Lord Landsdown that expresses the opposite view of the war: he wants to end the war for the following reasons:

- People are dying, the best men. Renewing the population will take generations

- Budget is hysterically low. Britain is bankrupt essentially.

If the war continues Britain will change in fundamental ways.

Wilson only ends up making his peace move in December 1916. In Germany, they're putting in motion their 1917 war plan. And in Britain Lloyd George's pro-war policies win. It's too late for mediation.

Also in 1917, L. George forms a national coalition that's determined to win the war at all costs. In France, Georges Clemenceau of the Liberal [radical] party is a fierce man.

At the same time, Ludendorff becomes the military leader of Germany and Bethmann Hollweg will step down as chancellor.

Wilson gets reelected in the US. He calls for "peace without victory" but it's not as effective. He doesn't manage to intimidate the Brits or the Germans enough. The Germans think that they'll be able to defeat the Brits by the time the US can train soldiers to help them.

A new phase begins in WWI. The Russian Empire headed by Tsar Nicholas II is overthrown by the Russian people. They protest that children are hungry and the soldiers are underpaid.

The Germans, anticipating the involvement of the Americans, reach out to Mexico and ally themselves with them against the US, promising they'd help them regain some of their territories from the 1840s. The Brits intercept this message and publish it in America. Wilson decides the Americans need to join the war. Why? He wants to end the war to save civilization.