The Modern World, Part Two: Global History since 1910 -- Week 4 Notes
Video 1: Choosing Global War
June 1940 - December 1941
During this period, WWII is transformed. In Europe, the dictators are winning. In Asia, the dictators are also winning. There are two separate wars and they merge. The US and Russia are pulled into the war.
Fortunately for the democracies, the totalitarian regimes start fighting each other.
Berlin
Hitler has ideas about race and space, intending to create more space for the race, subjugating Slavs, killing Jews, and if necessary fighting the enemies in the West. In order to do this, they must defeat the British.
Italy and Japan reach out to Hitler to form a coalition and parcel out the world. But this runs counter to Hitler's ideas about space and race.
In the summer of 1940, the German army tries to assess whether the plan is feasible. They conclude they can beat the Soviets. They're a bit overconfident thanks to their victory against France. In addition, they conclude that contending with the Brits will be difficult: in order to invade England they'd have to cross the British channel. To do this, they need to control the skies (because England has a strong navy). In the fall of 1940, the Brits lose thousands of planes and pilots. However, the plan fails. The Brits bomb the Germans and then the Germans bomb the Brits.
Hitler's focus shifts in July 1940, and by the end of the year, his focus hardens away from Britain and towards the Soviets.
Tokyo
The Japanese have ideas about creating a Pan-Asian empire. This includes Chinese territories as well as old Western outposts that may, perhaps, have resources. They have to decide whether to go North against the Soviets, to China, or to the South which might be easy to invade.
There's a lot of army and navy bureaucracy and nobody can decide what to do. They know they don't want to go up against the US.
They decide to follow the Germans as a role model.
They think the Chinese should have surrendered by now. The war against China is costing Japan lots of resources.
French Indochina and British-held Singapore look good to the Japanese because of the French defeat in Europe and the preoccupation of the Brits domestically.
There's a stalemate in Tokyo into 1941.
The USA in 1940
America was very divided in this period, even more so than the Vietnam war. There was a large group of Americans that believed they had to stand up to the dictatorships. Another large group believed passionately that they ought to stay out of the war.
An America First rally was organized pleading against the war. America First members crossed party lines. America had become more isolationist following the Great Depression.
People were scarred by WWI and so passed lots of laws that would prevent involvement in another big war. But in June 1940 in Charlottesville, Virginia, Roosevelt gave a speech where he said they might not join the war in terms of fighting but they cared who won the war and so would support in terms of financials and resources.
Roosevelt, who was a Democrat, then replaced his Secretary of the Army and Navy with two prominent Republicans. He declares a state of national emergency and begins preparing the country for what may come.
Some historians argue that staying out of the war is idealistic and the realistic choice was getting involved. But Prof disagrees and argues that there are legitimate inverted arguments.
The isolationist stance was irritating to the rest of the World. Churchill in England was sure that America would join the war by 1940 because Hitler sucked so bad. The Japanese were annoyed that the Americans were putting sanctions on them (which?). The Germans were annoyed at the Americans' sneaking arms and supplies to the Allies despite neutrality acts.
FDR, therefore, has serious dilemmas. He's running for a fourth term (an unprecedented act; he thought himself indispensable because of the war). He decides to stay out of the war. The Republicans nominate an internationalist and Roosevelt gets elected. Harry Hopkins is the man in charge of getting supplies to the Brits. He has a great relationship with George Marshall who's the army's chief of staff and Henry Stimson, secretary of war. The three assume the US will get into the war and agree that Germany's the worst enemy they'll have to focus on when that happens.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the continent isn't divided exactly according to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact:
But Hitler doesn't make too much of a fuss because he has plans to take down the Soviets soon anyway.
Mussolini meanwhile also has ambitions and invades Greece.
Yugoslavia and Greece both oppose the Axis powers. Hitler invades the Balkans including Yogoslavia, Greece, and even Crete, defeating the British yet again (was Crete British?).
Stalin continues to fight against internal enemies. He has notions that the Germans and Russians might collaborate. But his spies tell him that Hitler is getting ready to attack Russia.
There seems to be no grand strategy for the Axis powers. Hitler is doing very little to coordinate with them against the Allies. Which is good for the Allies.
In June 1941, Stalin is astonished when the Germans attack Russia. This creates a whole new set of considerations on the other side of the world, in Washington and Tokyo.
Washington and Tokyo
The Americans are divided regarding what's going to happen. Some think the Germans will win and some think the Russians will survive. The latter scenario means there is a better chance of beating the Germans later on. Keeping the Soviets in the war becomes a prime interest for the US. They now want to make sure the Japanese don't pick a fight with Russia. So the US puts sanctions in place against Japan to curb their ability to fight Russia but it turns Japanese attention to the US.
The Japanese need to decide whether to turn South or North. In spite of American attempts to deter Japan from the North = Russia, they decide to go to war in Aug-September 41 against the US and the British and the Dutch holdings near Southeast Asia.
America had annexed Hawaii and the Philippines in the 1880s-1890s.
Prince Konoe is pushed out of the lead and Hideki Tojo, a general, takes his place.
[Modus Vivendi: In diplomacy, a modus vivendi is an instrument for establishing an international accord of a temporary or provisional nature, intended to be replaced by a more substantial and thorough agreement, such as a treaty.][Wikipedia]
The Japanese want to reach an agreement with the Americans, and the Americans want to find a way to get along too. But they can't. The Japanese want to expand. The Americans don't like this. America is committed to the future of China (because of cultural sympathies rather than trade connections). But they want to avoid a war because their strategy is Germany first.
Germany is also pissed off at America's attempts to aid the Brits in submarine warfare, and Germany tells Japan they'll support a Japanese attack on the US.
So there's no modus vivendi.
By the time Japan declares war on the US, things look good for Germany in Russia. So it makes sense to declare war then. Because they would have a strong ally. The US gave Japan an ultimatum to negotiate the Pacific situation peacefully. Japan wanted to expand so they attacked the US on December 7, 1941.
Key Gambles
1. On the German-Soviet war -- the Japanese gambled for the Germans, the US for the Russians
2. On the American capacity -- Japan thinks they can run America tired and stay in control. The Germans think they can knock out the Soviet Union before America gets involved against them.
Video 2: Gambling for Victory
Failed gambles.
Gamble #1 (US gamble): Japan won't attack the US
The Americans placed sanctions on Japan to prevent Japan from attacking the Soviet Union. It worked, but at some cost. America also wanted Japan to take America seriously. But they didn't want a war with Japan and didn't think Japan would attack.
Japan attacks, but the Americans don't have to change their Germany-first strategy. This is because Germany declares war on the US (to help the Japanese, as Germany promised).
The gambles all fail and the world is locked in global warfare.
Gamble #2 (Japanese gamble): Germans rapidly defeat USSR
The German-Soviet conflict was perhaps one of the biggest war efforts in history.
The arrows indicate the movement of the German army towards the Eastern front against the Soviets.
In October 1941 it's not looking good for the Germans. They're exhausted and vulnerable. They're in the green area in the map above. Characteristically, the Germans make a Hail Mary pass in a desperate attempt to win.
Gamble #3 (German and Japanese gamble): The Americans won't make much of a difference to warfare
The gamble fails.
The Japanese victory at Pearl Harbor is incomplete. This is because no aircraft carriers were hurt, and aircraft carriers are important. Also, the Japanese neglected to damage the Hawaiian oil stocks (Hawaii is used as a fuelling station between the US west coast and Asia).
The Japanese win a series of victories in 1942. Where do they go next? Hawaii to drive the Americans to California? Australia to prevent the Allies from using that as a land base? India to threaten the British position there? (Or they could also attack the Soviets to help the Germans). They think the Germans are fine against the Soviets, but they launch three simultaneous attacks. They took on too much and nothing worked well enough. They should have focused on Hawaii (the Midway battle). The Americans win the battle. If the Japanese had focused on Hawaii, this would probably have forced the Americans to change their Germany-first strategy to Japan-first.
Video 3: Strategies for Total War
We're in 1942. Countries try to avoid total war but these attempts failed. Now countries have to strategize in order to win a "prolonged, total and global war". Countries have to mobilize their countries towards the war effort. How does this affect the countries themselves?
Germany wages a war of total annihilation. They envision the extinction of populations who are racially inferior, Jews and other populations, as part of the Final Plan. Initially, they wanted to relocate the Jews elsewhere but since they want to dominate the world, they realized they need to get rid of Jews entirely. They killed a million Jews via shooting squads and then erected killing factories, an unprecedented initiative in human history.
Soviet Union: Communist Sparta
The Soviet Union is a command society taken to the max (what does this mean?).
The Germans keep being surprised by the continued availability of Soviet soldiers. Also weapons. How do the Russians produce so many weapons relative to the Germans? Both countries have the same "set of inputs" (I assume Prof means resources and people).
The soviets mobilize their resources better thanks to a better-organized dictatorship. The Soviet leadership is willing to force citizens to pay higher prices for the war effort. Communism is more effective than Nazism. In addition, the support Russians receive from the Americans helps: the Americans provide civilian goods. Also, the Russians only have one zone of combat whereas the Germans have several. In 1942 the tipping point happens where the Soviets are able to overtake the Germans. Stalingrad is a big success. In 1943 foreign aid to the Soviets really helps. By the end of 1945, the Soviets are tapped out in terms of resources.
USA: The Juggler
At the end of 1942, the Germans have several war fronts, one main and three secondary fronts.
The Americans have three fronts going on in the Pacific. They are also supplying supplies to the Soviets (because of this the Americans and Soviets have jointly occupied Iran). They also have a "theater" in the Mediterranean and one over the skies of Germany. They're getting ready to attack in Europe, and also open a naval front to help the naval war with England. The Americans have a problem organizing this logistical effort. They build the Pentagon office and set to leveraging global alliances in order to have a winning strategy.
They make four gambles:
- They'll keep their Germany-first strategy, with a secondary focus on the Japan front
- They can get by with a small army, big navy, and big airforce (they have to allocate resources)
- Redouble the bet on airpower against Germany (this diverts the German efforts to defend against the air attacks)
- They can build an atomic bomb (even though this hasn't been done before). Allocated lots of resources to this.
Video 4: Zero Hour
Stunde Null = Zero Hour = everything is destroyed and we're starting from scratch.
There's total war. Nations are mobilizing men, women, children.
1944 was the bloodiest year of the war.
Simultaneously, in the Pacific, the Allies make progress against the Japanese. They suffer losses in China but manage to provide supplies to the Chinese. The Allies fight in Burma.
There's worldwide devastation. Cities bombed to ruins. Germany is carved up into zones of Allied occupation.
Japan quits the war before it can be invaded, but it is devastated by American bombing raids, including the atomic bombing in Nagasaki. It obliterated so much :(
All the sides involved in the war were taking an increasingly debased attitude towards human life. Although the Allies thought they had the moral high ground relative to the Nazis because of the systematic killing the Nazis perpetrated.
The war ended in Germany in 1945 with a military ceremony. The German generals surrendered. In Japan, the Americans allowed the Japanese emperor to remain in power and there was an official civilian ceremony there.
What are the lessons people are taking away from the war?
High Modernism
- High Liberalism -- liberals thought of themselves as the opposite of tyrants. This was important in America which had a separate legal system for African Americans.
- Economic Management -- Governments reached a peak of economic management in the war. The potential is obvious
- Urban management -- cities can and should be planned
- War management
There's a sense of wanting to be modern on the cultural level in terms of adopting advanced technologies. Top-down modernizers have their heyday now.
During the war, James Burnham wrote an influential book "The Managerial Revolution". He was a communist who left communism via Trotskyism. He argues in the book that all societies are similar because they're just huge organizers on a gigantic scale. 1984 by George Orwell is a fictional response to Burnham. The Road to Serfdom by Hayek is another influential book positing that big governments lead to serfdom.
In America, there was a general agreement that government-level organization was needed to keep America afloat and prevent a second Great Depression.
Stalin and the Communist World
The Americans (Roosevelt, then Truman) meet with Stalin at Yalta and Potsdam in 1945.
Stalin was concerned with the security of his country and world Communism. He wanted territorial expansion, to disable Germany and Japan, maintain wartime alliances, and maintain a global network of obedient communist parties.
The Americans similarly are concerned with preventing another war, and maintaining the security of the US. Like the Russians, they want to maintain wartime alliances and disable Germany and Japan. But unlike the Russians, they hope to create new international diplomatic institutions. They are also more concerned with building a functioning world economy. Also, ending empires to create freer trade and also a commercial world that's better for the Americans.
Which two visions of the world have more appeal? The Soviet vision or the American vision? The visions have things in common and differ on some points. What are the likely points of friction in 1945?
- The Soviets are establishing a communist Poland and redrawing the boundaries of Poland which rankles the Americans
- The Americans and Soviets have to work together to handle postwar Germany
- There are communists in China, France causing civil war
- Trade and exchange (friction among allies)
- Decolonization (friction among allies)
Video 5: Imagining New Countries
Leaders need to imagine their countries postwar. There are countries that are defeated, ideologies discredited (Nazism, Fascism), people displaced.
"Lonely pilgrims" leaders of small nations (like Burma) who are trying to imagine new countries and don't have large governments behind them. Mao Tse Tong is another example. He was leading a communist faction in hiding during Japanese attacks on China in WWII. Also Gandhi.
Leaders are asking: who are the people in the nations? What are the nations' borders?
The Dutch East Indies is comprised of many different islands with many different religions and peoples. Should they all be one country = Indonesia? Or multiple countries.
There's often dissonance for these leaders because they're climbing educational ranks created by Westerners in order to overthrow Western order in their colonized home.
What kind of ideological models should they follow? Liberalism? Communism? Socialism? Something else entirely?
Ideologies need to be created and followed. They provide narratives, identities, vocabularies, policy programs to follow like recipes.
We've already seen how the ideological families evolved. Here's a further evolution:
Other than Spain, Fascism shrinks. Communism grows. Liberalism as a way of organizing political action shrinks. Democratic Socialism is unchanged. Social Democracy grows, with America as its paragon. National Conservatism, the top-down modernizer, is growing.
Social Democracy
- Countercyclical macroeconomics -- the notion that governments can influence the economy (originated by John Maynard Keynes)
- Social insurance -- providing more security to people. The government ought to play a role in mitigating risk for citizens
- Government in partnership with labor -- big corporations and big unions supported by government because the government wants a balance between corporations and unions so that workers and employers are represented. The government as umpire in this relationship. The auto industry for instance.
Global Economy
The gold-dollar standard replaces the gold standard. The US government gained control of the dollar. Keynes and Harry Dexter White, a treasury official, were key figures in deciding the future of American economics in the Bretton-Woods conference. According to the system devised in this conference, free trade would be supported but carefully regulated. Firm government control on cross-border movement of money. An international World Bank was created in which governments could invest. UNRRA was also created, distributing assistance to people in need after WWII.
So SDs are concerned with governments regulating and being involved in domestic and international affairs.
Video 6: Postwar
What conflicts did states have while recreating themselves after WWII?
Different areas of Germany are occupied by different European countries. The USSR was widespread including the Baltic countries that were now under its control. Millions of Germans have fled from Germany.
In Asia, China moved its capital from Nanjing to deeper inland. When the Japanese leave China, there's a vacuum for control of China in the previously Japanese-occupied areas, in 1945-6, a civil war.
In Africa, in 1948 there are still lots of colonies including French, Portuguese, and Belgian colonies. South America isn't much changed.
In Southeast Asia [Burma, Indo-China, the Philippines, Singapore, Dutch East Indies], there are changes. Many natives push out the colonizers and the Europeans and Americans react. Some are ambivalent while others fight to maintain control. Communists increasingly support the native efforts in the regions.
The British are divided about what to do about India. They promised to give India independence at the end of the war, in order to get the Indians on their side in the war efforts of WWII. Negotiations ensue until the British abruptly give up. India split into Pakistan (Muslim) and India.
In the Near East, there had been mandatory British rule in Jordan, Palestine, and other agreements in Egypt and Iraq, military occupation in Libya, Eritrea, Somalia. There was a big question about Iran. The Russians had occupied North Iran and the Americans/Brits had occupied the South. There was lots of oil there and disagreements about it. The Russians had promised to pull out of Iran but were slow to. This caused tensions.
Origins of the Cold War
Historians tend to pinpoint the origins of the Cold War to the post-WWII era. Of course, it's part of a longer struggle.
Marshall's Two Failures
Russia and the US needed to collaborate on several things: the Iran situation, the Civil War situation in China, and the joint control over Germany. George Marshall was tasked with resolving the China situation. Marshall tried to see if a combined government was possible in China and concluded that neither side wanted to share power. He came to think that the Chinese National Government was corrupt. Both the Russians and the Americans thought the National government would be the one who would rule.
In Germany, people are starving and the administration is breaking down. The Americans realize that Communists would be the ones to benefit from the chaos. Marshall got together with the French and British and also negotiates with Molotov the Russian. He tries to put in place a 25-year plan with Stalin during which foreign powers will police Germany, but that fails. He returns from Russia knowing that something needs to be done for Americans to regain the strategic initiative, but not knowing what that something is.
Video 7: Two Europes
In the 1940s, the Marshall Plan was enacted in Europe. Dean Acheson, George Kennan, and Will Clayton were additional team members. The plan had economic components, including trying to revive world trade. The plan included the Americans funding European purchases ("a European shopping list"), with the stipulation that the purchases be made in the US. Another condition was that the Europeans would knock down trading barriers within Europe so that the Americans wouldn't have to contend with different trade walls. Europeans would have to cooperate with each other. European interdependence would mean political cooperation as well.
From the Soviet perspective, this is all wrong:
- The Americans are the organizers of this, not the Soviets
- The plan encourages capitalism, which is incompatible with Communism
Effects of the Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan gave Europeans confidence about the future. In terms of economics, there were disagreements about whether it was helpful. But politically it was indisputably helpful.
After the war, there's a very leftist political spirit: the Communists, Social Democrats, and National Conservatives were also strong. Social Democrats are sometimes called Christian Democrats in Europe, and they become dominant in France and in Europe. SDs are all about domestic and international cooperation.
In Eastern Europe, in 1948-9 the Soviets are able to exert their influence on various countries (book by Anne Applebaum), choke out democracies, and establish Communist rule. This happened in Czechoslovakia, which shocked the world because of what happened there only ten years prior (can't remember boo!).
In divided Germany, the areas held by Western powers are being converted to free trade and capitalism, but Soviet-held areas cut Berlin off from road supplies. Americans fly in supplies to Germany.
Video 8: Revolutionary Asia
It's the late 1940s. There are two revolutionary models at play in Asia:
- The Guomindang -- the Chinese Nationalist model headed by Chiang Kai-Shek. They'd started as a revolutionary party in the 1920s, drawing inspiration from the Soviets. Top-down modernized China. The Americans sponsor this model. They want China to join the UN Security Force.
- The Chinese Communist Party -- Headed by Mao Tse Tong. Zhou Enlai is another important member.
5-minute 1960s documentary about the Chinese Civil War
Summary of the documentary: There are two factions. Initially the Americans negotiate a treaty but war erupts again. Mao emerges as a strong personality trying to enact his Communist ideology in all of China and not permit free speech. War continues.
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In 1947, the Soviet governments decides to help the Communists win.
The American General Wedemeyer visits China and advises the American government to provide advisors and money to the Chinese Nationalists to help them win the Civil War. Marshall dismisses the report because he doesn't think the Americans should intervene, and instead decides to concentrate American energies on Europe.
So the Soviets get to help the Chinese Communists in an uninterrupted manner.
In the second half of 1948 the Nationalists start losing, and in 1949 the Communists win in China.
Along with their win, they prove the success of a new Communist revolutionary model: organize the peasants, enact land reform.
Stalin and Mao discuss the possibilities of the world. They look to East Asia and see a world full of turmoil: Korea, Taiwan, Indo-China, the Phillipines, Indonesia. In all of these places there's a Communist party who wants to take charge.
The Americans are hoping the Chinese will end up more Nationalist than Communist. What do they do with this government that is so flawed? Do they bolster it or do they abandon it?
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